Reinforcer Assessment for Applied Behavior Analysis

The foundational premise of Applied Behavior Analysis (ABA) is that when behavior is reinforced, it is more likely to reoccur. When behavior is repeatedly reinforced, it becomes learned behavior. When we teach, we want students to learn specific behaviors. When students have problem behaviors, we need to teach alternative or replacement behavior. The replacement behavior needs to serve the same Function as the problem behavior, as the function is the way in which the behavior is reinforced for the child. In other words, if a behavior functions to provide a child attention, and the attention is reinforcing, the behavior will continue. Changeability of Reinforcement Many items can be reinforcing for a child. What is reinforcing is related to the function and the value of the function for a child. At different points certain different functions will have more importance than others to individual children: at some point, it may be attention, at another, it might be a preferred item or avoidance. For the purposes of Discrete Trials.  reinforcers that can be readily available and given and withdrawn quickly are the most effective. They may be toys, sensory items (spinning lights, musical toys, squishy toys/balls,) preferred items (dolls or Disney characters) or even escape, access to a break area. Sometimes edibles (candy or crackers) are used, but it is important that they are quickly paired with more appropriate social reinforcers. Not every item that is reinforcing for a child remains reinforcing. It may depend on the time of day, satiation, or the childs mood. Its important to have a rich menu of reinforcement that you can use with individual students when attempting to use ABA to teach or change behavior. Thats why it is important to attempt as many different kinds of reinforcers as possible, from preferred toys to sensory items. Ask About a Childs Preferences Parents and caregivers are a good place to start when exploring reinforcers. You can ask for the childs personal preferences: What does he/she enjoy doing when they can choose themselves? Does he/she have a favorite television character? Does he or she perseverate on that particular character? Parents and caregivers can give you some insight into the childs interests that will give you a sense of the kinds of preferences the child will find reinforcing. Non-Contingent Assessment The first step in assessing reinforcers is to give a child access to a number of items that The first step in assessing reinforcers is to give a child access to a number of items that young children would find appealing. Try to include items that the parent or caregiver has already indicated is a preferred item. It is called non-contingent because access to the reinforcer is not contingent on the childs behavior. To what items does the child gravitate? Note anything that the child picks up to assess again. Note any themes: is there a preference for musical toys, for specific characters? Does the child use cars or other toys appropriately? How does the child play with the toys? Does the child choose self-stimulation instead of toys? Can you engage the child in play with any of the toys? Once you have seen the child in the presence of the toys, you can list preferred items and eliminate those that they have shown little interest in. Structured Assessments Through your unstructured assessment, you have discovered which items your student gravitates to. Now, you want to find your most powerful (A ) reinforcers and which you will keep back for when the student is satiated with his or her A reinforcers. That is done by systematically laying small numbers of items (often just two) in front of the child and seeing what preferences he or she expresses. Concurrent Schedule Reinforcer Assessment: Two or more reinforcers are presented as a response to a target behavior, and the preference is noted. The reinforcers are switched out, to compare later with other reinforcers. Multiple Schedule Reinforcer Schedule: A reinforcer is used in contingent setting (such as social attention for appropriate play) and later in a non-contingent setting (without a requirement of appropriate play.) If the appropriate play increases despite the fact the child is getting non-contingent attention later in the day, it is assumed that the reinforcer is effective for increasing play. Progressive Ratio Schedule Reinforcer Assessment: A reinforcer is checked to see if it continues to increase response when response demand is increased. So, if a reinforcer stops eliciting the response you want when you expect more responses, it is not as powerful a reinforcer as you thought. If it does . . . stick with it. Reinforcement Suggestions Edibles: Edibles are never the first choice of an ABA practitioner since you want to move into secondary reinforcers as quickly as possible. Still, for children with severe disabilities, especially older children with poor functional and social skills, edibles may be the way to engage them and begin building behavioral momentum. Some suggestions: CrackersPieces of fruitSmall individual candies, like Skittles or M and Ms.Preferred foods. Some children with autism love dill pickles. Sensory Items: Children with autism spectrum disorders often have issues with sensory integration, and crave sensory input. Items which provide that input, like spinning lights or musical toys, can be powerful reinforcers for young children with disabilities. Some reinforcers are: Spinning lights or vibrating pens. These kinds of sensory items can be found in catalogs for special educators. If you dont have access to the catalogs, your occupational therapist may actually have some of these items.Gross motor activities, like bouncing on a pilates ball, or a ceiling hung swing.Tickles or direct sensory input. This is most appropriate for very young children, but it may also help pair reinforcement with the therapist/teacher. Preferred Items and Toys Many children with disabilities love television and often perseverate on favorite television characters, like Mickey Mouse or Dora the Explorer. Combining these strong preferences with toys may make some items powerful reinforcers. Some ideas: Sound books with favorite characters. I have found these to be good reinforcers for young children.Jointed action figuresCars, trucks, and track.Thomas the Tank Engine trains.Small animal figures.Blocks. Ongoing Assessment Childrens interests change. So may the items or activities that they find reinforcing. At the same time, a practitioner should be moving to spread out reinforcement and pair primary reinforcers with secondary reinforcers, like social interaction and praise. As children succeed in gaining new skills through ABA, they will move away from the short and frequent bursts of instruction that is discrete trial teaching toward more traditional and naturalistic methods of instruction. Some may even begin to reinforce themselves, by internalizing the values of competence and mastery.

Questions On Health And Safety Policy - 2031 Words

Pg. 16 Structuring a written health and safety policy 3 Three headings to structure the document: †¢ General Policy of Health and Safety. †¢ Responsibilities in the company. †¢ Clear instructions and information, and adequate training in the company. 4 How would you expand on the three headings? †¢ General Policy of Health and Safety: With a General policy of Health and Safety it needs what health and safety precautions needs to be prevented and how this needs to happen. All machinery and the workplace should be maintained and safe to make sure it is safe for the employees to use. The statement of a general policy on health and safety at work sets out your commitment to managing health and safety effectively, and what you want to achieve in your companies health and safety. †¢ Responsibilities in the company: The Company’s employees as well as employers need to know their responsibilities in the company and need to take blame if they do not take responsibility for the rules they may have broken. The health and safety policy on responsibilities sets out who is responsible for specific actions and what will happen if they do not follow the rules which the responsibilities follow. For example An employer must be ready to take responsibility of a new employee and if they do not know how to use a machine and the employer makes them use it regardless the employer must be ready to face the consequences if the employee get injured as they have not been taught how to use the machineShow MoreRelatedWhat Policies Might An Organization Develop As Part Of Its Commitments Of Health And Safety?1244 Words   |  5 PagesActivity 1 1) What policies might an organization develop as part of its commitments to health and safety? It is important it have a written work Health and Safety Policy for the organizations and businesses which have management systems. 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A Brief Analysis of Kafka’s The Trial Free Essays

On his thirtieth birthday, Joseph K. is arrested even though he has done nothing wrong. Naturally Joseph K. We will write a custom essay sample on A Brief Analysis of Kafka’s The Trial or any similar topic only for you Order Now is angry and annoyed. On the day of his thirty-first birthday, Joseph K. is taken to a nearby quarry by the warders and killed. Joseph K. does nothing to stop them from killing him. The Trial is the story of the intervening year between Joseph K.’s two birthdays. This novel treats many subjects, but this paper will examine only three: the mystery of the bureaucracy in the novel, sexuality during the process, and the economic and social point of view of The Trial. The bureaucracy in The Trial is large, impersonal and frightening. Prior to the beginning of the book Joseph K. is a successful businessman working in a bank apparently on the fast track for advancement and even greater success. After his arrest he and his life decline until his execution. Although Joseph K. â€Å"is accused of crimes he did not commit . . . [he] still feels guilty about these unnamed offenses† (Meyers, 329). This guilt plays an important role throughout the novel. Joseph K. is mentally and emotionally paralyzed by his guilt of having been accused of the unknown crime. As Boa writes, the experience of being arrested has taken Joseph K. out of his comfort zone and he is unable to operate; he doesn’t know what to do. â€Å"What is the nature of the court, what is the law, what should the individual on trial do?† (1). The paralysis Joseph K. suffers appears to be psychological rather than due to a physical threat. The parable told to Joseph K. by the priest provides an accurate description of the state Joseph K. is in. In the parable a man from the country comes to have access to the law however the doorkeeper will not admit the man. The doorkeeper steps aside from the doorway and offers no physical resistance, but the man is paralyzed by what might be done by the institution. â€Å"‘If you are so strongly tempted, try to get in without my permission. But note that I am powerful. And I am only the lowest doorkeeper. From hall to hall, keepers stand at every door, one more powerful than the other . . .'† (Kafka, 267-8). Rather than confront these possibilities the man sits on a stool by the door and waits. This is precisely what Joseph K. does. He tacitly accepts the non-accusation of the court and submits to its jurisdiction. One cannot help but feel that if he were refuse to comply with the court that he would be free to continue living his life. The mystery of the bureaucracy of the court appears to be a psychological threat of the unknown combined with a man’s natural inclination to obey the institutions that govern the locality where he lives. The second area this paper will address is sexuality during the process. During the year of the trial, Joseph K. has a brief flirtation with Fraulein Brustner but she later refuses his advances. It is interesting that â€Å"Brustner† is very close to the German word â€Å"brusten† meaning breast. The desire to dominate a woman has considerable Freudian implications that suggest that Kafka was greatly influenced by his mother, the source of his life and breastfeeding, and not always in a positive manner. During this encounter Joseph K. kisses her â€Å"all over the face, like some animal lapping greedily at a spring of long-sought fresh water† (Kafka, 38). This is an interesting foreshadowing of his execution where he dies â€Å"[l]ike a dog† (Kafka, 286). After kissing her Joseph K. returns home, â€Å"[h]e fell asleep almost at once, but before doing so he thought for a little about his behavior, he was pleased with it, yet surprised that he was not still more pleased† (38). This appears to be an example where a man dominates a woman to get his will without regard to her desire. This strength is uncharacteristic of Joseph K. particularly in regard to the affair he has with Leni, Huld’s nurse. Leni appears to like men who are vulnerable. She has considerable control over her employer who must accept her care because of his heart condition and because she is unaccountable attracted to Joseph K. who is vulnerable because of the accusation against him. From an economic and social point of view The Trial is particularly interesting. The Trial â€Å"moves beyond the household to explore the interlocking of social power and psychic structure in urban society at large† (Boa, 133). Adler suggests that Kafka is writing about â€Å"[t]wo defining factors stand out in this period. Firstly, the conflict between Czech, German and Jewish traditions; and secondly, the struggle between Prague’s history and modernisation [sic]† Kafka appears to have had trouble reconciling these three worlds in his own life and feels he is unable to successfully struggle against the enormous, looming presence of the government and his religious background. It is interesting that Joseph K. actually has considerable impact, although it appears is unaware of it. In fact, the Court even follows his requests and confirms his assumptions. Although K. tells himself what time he should arrive for his first interrogation, this turns out to be the same hour mentioned by the Examining Magistrate. K. decides that he will attend only one interrogation, instead of the series of short interrogations planned by the Court, and the Court complies K. accuses the warders, and the Court promptly punishes them . . . . (Lasine, 34). It is this lack of awareness of the capabilities that Kafka seems to warning the reader about. The Trial is not to be viewed as a plan or even a call to change society, but an examination of authority intended to help people think for themselves about the issues in the book (Boa, 186). The Trial is a haunting frightening book in the same genre as the later books Orwell’s 1984 and Huxley’s Brave New World. However, it is more subtle and thought provoking. Given the multi-leveled layers of bureaucracy both governmental and in business one wonders if The Trial is not more relevant today that when it was written near the beginning of World War I. Given the excess of administrative law with its great power that is not subject to many of the protections of due process, it is easy to empathize with Joseph K. Works Cited Adler, Jeremy. â€Å"What Was Lost? The Czech Jewish Community.† European Judaism. 38, 2 (2005) 70+. Boa, Elizabeth. Kafka: Gender, Class, and Race in the Letters and Fictions. Clarendon Press: Oxford, 1996. Kafka, Franz. The Trial. Alfred A. Knopf: New York, 1957. Lasine, Stuart. â€Å"Kafka’s Trial.† The Explicator. 42, 3 (1985): 34. Meyers, Jeffrey. â€Å"Swift and Kafka.† Papers on Language Literature. 40, 3 (2004): 329. How to cite A Brief Analysis of Kafka’s The Trial, Essay examples

Management and Organizational Behavior Encouraging Employees

Question: Describe about the Management and Organizational Behavior for Encouraging Employees. Answer: Introduction Motivation in an organization is an activity of encouraging employees to perform better so that they are able to accomplish the goals and objectives. It is a theoretical concept that explains the behavior. The assignment addresses the theories of motivation and the use of these theories in the organization. The author has chosen Starbucks to evaluate the motivational theories and concepts and analyze the use of these in the organization. The assignment highlights the strengths and weakness of the three motivation theories such as need theory, cognitive activities and reward and reinforcement. It describes the main needs and expectations that managers have to take not in order to motivate the employees (Drnyei and Ushioda 2013). Body Basic model of motivation: Motivation is the behavior that humans hold. Motivation theory is the process of explaining why and how human behavior is activated. There is various motivation theory that are as follows: Maslows hierarchy of needs Motivator hygiene theory Alderfers ERG theory McClellands learned needs theory (Heinrichs et al. 2013). The major theories of motivation are: Expectancy motivation theory Equity theory Reinforcement theory Goal setting theory. The basic aim of motivation is to encourage employees to work hard to accomplish goals and objectives. It helps in improving the productivity of the firm as it encourages team building. Three motivation theories: Maslows Need theory of motivation: The need theory of motivation is divided into several hierarchies as follows: Physiological component includes the basic need of humans that is hunger, shelter, food and other needs. Safety component includes security and protection that is generated from physical and emotional harm. Social component includes affection, belongingness, acceptance and friendship. Esteem includes social status that the humans have such as achievement, autonomy and other factors. Self-actualization is the highest level of need. The strength of the need theory is that it is applicable to all the human beings. The weakness is that there is little growth opportunity and the model risky in nature (Kaur 2013). Cognitive theory of motivation: There are two types of cognitive motivation theory that is expectancy theory and goal settings theory. Expectancy theory explains the reason of the humans to choose one behavioral option over the others. Goal setting theory explains the motivation that is required for setting the goals and objectives. The strength of the theory is that it is easily approachable and accessible while the disadvantage is that it is a combination of two theories that makes it difficult to understand (Miner 2013). Reinforcement theory of motivation: It is one of the oldest motivation theories that are based on traditional findings that is based on behavior of people. The theory is also known as behaviorism. The weakness of the theory is that it was made out of frustration and hence lacks direct observing phenomenon. The strength is that the theory has been used in many fields of study such as raising children and training animals (Reeve 2014). Case study: Starbucks: Starbucks is a well-known coffee shop that is well known for the employee management. It is well known for not only coffee but also staff service. The company uses Maslows theory of motivation to motivate its employees. Starbucks uses Maslows theory of employee motivation by trying to fulfill the needs of employees such as safety needs, social needs, physiological needs and other needs. Starbucks provides security and protection to the employment and encourage them to work as a team by giving competitive salary. The employees at Starbucks treat each other with respect that keeps the self-esteem of people high (Chua and Banerjee 2013). The working condition is good that encourages works to work hard. Starbucks gives employees an opportunity to grow and develop providing them to work in a flexible environment. The competitive salary, working environment and the flexible management helps in motivating employees to work better. Starbucks is known for its efficient management of employees and the service that it provides. Hence, studying the case of Starbucks is essential to understand the motivation theories used. Conclusion Motivating employees at workplace is necessary to encourage them to work hard and achieve the set goals and targets. There are various motivation theories developed by various authors. Each theory has some weakness and strengths. Motivation is the behavior that people hold. It is the responsibility of managers and leaders in an organization to motivate employees. Maslows hierarchy need theory is the most widely used theory in many organizations. Starbucks that is a coffee house also uses Maslows need theory to motivate the employees. References Chua, A.Y. and Banerjee, S., 2013. Customer knowledge management via social media: the case of Starbucks.Journal of Knowledge Management,17(2), pp.237-249. Drnyei, Z. and Ushioda, E., 2013.Teaching and researching: Motivation. Routledge. Heinrichs, K., Oser, F. and Lovat, T. eds., 2013.Handbook of moral motivation: theories, models, applications(Vol. 1). Springer Science Business Media. Kaur, A., 2013. Maslows Need Hierarchy Theory: Applications and Criticisms.Global Journal of Management and Business Studies,3(10), pp.1061-1064. Miner, J.B., 2013. Miner (2013), Addendum: The Role Motivation Theories of Organizational Leadership.Transformational and Charismatic Leadership: The Road Ahead 10th Anniversary Edition (Monographs in Leadership and Management, Volume 5) Emerald Group Publishing Limited,5, pp.395-398. Reeve, J., 2014.Understanding motivation and emotion. John Wiley Sons.

Doe the Book This Present Darkness Apply Today Essay Example

Doe the Book This Present Darkness Apply Today? Essay Do you wonder what the end times might be like? Well look out our window. You are a part of them. Our everyday events such as the election coming up and all the fighting we seeing on our little tv screens are all building up to create the last days. This Present Darkness is a book which uses themes to tell of the social and intellectual milieu of the time and its relationship with biblical prophecy. This book’s author, Frank E. Peretti, is a world famous and successful Christian writer of adult novels and children’s books. Through his use of monsters, demons, angels, and common day events, Peretti creates a more appealing way of viewing biblical prophecy and its importance in today’s society. One thing often heard of in today’s society is talk of freedom and the fight for it. Peretti demonstrates how there is also a spiritual fight for freedom of our souls especially through Sandy Hogan and her search to have her own chooses in relation to her religious beliefs and her schooling courses on page 46. The people of Ashton were also fighting for their freedom such as the retired Reverend James Farrel on page 83, Ted Harmel on page 142, Hank and Mary Busche on pages 83 89, and many others. All of these people fought for their freedom though religious ways, political, or spiritually within themselves. Only one person could grant the true freedom that they were looking for and this is seen in the peace that all those, who have accepted God, have at the end of the battle at the university on page 508. We will write a custom essay sample on Doe the Book This Present Darkness Apply Today? specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on Doe the Book This Present Darkness Apply Today? specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on Doe the Book This Present Darkness Apply Today? specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer Peretti is showing that we will always have trials and hard times, no matter if you are a Christian or not, but it is the peace that you have through God at the end that is your true freedom. The main aspect of the social and intellectual milieu of the time was the New Age Movement. Peretti uses the New Age Movement in many of the themes of This Present Darkness, such as that God will prevail over darkness and that truth is the key. According to an article written by Mark Slick, the New Age Movement is an eastern- influence meta physical thought system, with a theology of ‘feel goodism’, ‘universal tolerance’ and ‘moral relativism’. With its belief and teachings that man is central, divine, co-creator, and the hope for all future peace and harmony, its appeal amongst a divided world grows. Peretti displays this through once again Sandy’s struggle with her father on page 97. Biblical prophecy seemed to be becoming more and more real every day during the years of 1985 and 1986. The social and intellectual milieu of the time seemed to strengthen these thoughts of fulfilled biblical prophesies also. With talk of Nuclear warships, protests, missiles, murder and mayhem in the streets of America, it leaves little to wonder why Peretti believed to focus his book on Biblical prophesies coming true through the creation of the New Age Movement. With the need for peace so great, the peace- hippy style of the New Age Movement was willingly accepted into society without a close examination of its darker interior. It was with this reason that Peretti’s book is written to expose this dark nature of the New Age Movement through the demonstration of its appeal to Sandy Hogan on page 153 and 154 and later her destruction by it on page 491. It is a dangerous movement, which Peretti has taken upon himself to expose to the world to be careful of the social and intellectual milieu of the time which was in the preparation for the fulfilling of biblical prophecy. It can clearly be seen throughout the themes of This Present Darkness that Peretti was writing on the New Age Movement, its impact on the social and intellectual milieu of the time and its relationship to biblical prophecy. Both Frank Peretti’s book, This Present Darkness, and his view of biblical prophecy had also been affected by certain events in Peretti’s lifetime, such as his disability and rough childhood, which lead him to write this book. Peretti’s search for truth and his need to expose the truth of the New Age Movement comes clear through the use of the theme of truth in the book. The resulting factor of this book may very well be to cause the reader to question their own view and concepts of the New Age Movement and a sense of precaution developed about dealing with it. These people might not realise how serious this stuff is otherwise. Peretti’s ultimate reasons for his book shown through the themes of This Present Darkness would have to be said to be the representation of the truth about the New Age Movement and how the end times are becoming closer each and every day. There is a battle waging, not quite like the one in Peretti’s books, but God is in control and he still has power over both angels and demons. Peretti urges all Christians through his book to put on the armour of the spirit and prepare for the spiritual war of all time (pg76). It’s going to be huge so get ready.

Writing pedagogy Essay Example

Writing pedagogy Essay Example Writing pedagogy Essay Writing pedagogy Essay Writing pedagogy is as varied as any other kind of instruction although there are stand-bys that seem to guide effective writing instruction. Many of those common elements have been listed in the plan below for teaching expository paragraphing. The writing key writing strategies I world use to teach expository writing are brainstorming (advance organizers), drafting, modeling, and peer review. These are writing techniques that would be beneficial to all writing. First off, a teacher would want to make sure that students understand the content and the structure of expository writing. In order to teach expository paragraphs, I would first have a question on the board when students come in- What does expository mean? They would use the cooperative technique of Think-Pair-Share, and we would develop a working definition. This would take less then five minutes. Then, I would present the various components of exposition, like comparison/contrast, cause/effect, steps in a process, description, etc. to the whole group. I would inform that class that descriptive is what we will focus on and brainstorm with them about about what makes good description to the whole group (Informing learners of objective). To stimulate some good descriptive writing, thought provoking pictures will be placed at various points around the room (gaining attention). Students will be instructed to choose a picture and free write about that picture using what they know about good description. All students who wrote on the same photo will form a group, which would be the beginning of small group instruction. They will read what they have written to each other, commenting on examples of good description in the works of others. I would allow 15 minutes for this. These same groups will brainstorm about possible thesis statements for their paragraphs, using previous knowledge of thesis statements (stimulating recall of prerequisite knowledge). They will rely on this prior knowledge to come up with a thesis statement. I would allow another ten minutes for this. Groups would share their possible thesis statements and we would critique them as a class. They would receive a handout with definitions and examples of basic elements of description, like effective vocabulary and figurative language. At this point, we would look at both a professional model and a student model of a good descriptive paragraph as a whole group and have a class discussion about what makes these good and how we would incorporate these methods into our own writing (presenting stimulus material). A rubric will also be provided and explained. This rubric would highlight voice, sentence structure, and various elements of description like use of figurative language, effective verbs, connotation, etc. Modeling is an essential part of the writing process and one that many teachers miss. Rubrics simply make the end results much more tangible for students rather then just the subjective grade that instructors sometimes give. Students would then draft or revise what they have already written on a computer, including a thesis. They would then email their paragraphs to a partner in the class who would use Word Track Changes to offer helpful suggestions/improvements and email the paragraph back (peer conferences). Each person would fill out an evaluation form including strengths of the paragraph, suggestions for improvement, areas where more development is needed, and questions for the writer (providing feedback). These will be submitted to the teacher (providing feedback). They would then go so far as to fill out the rubric for their partner’s paper as if they were grading it themselves. When they turn in a final draft, they will write reflectively about their paragraph relating to each point on the rubric and give themselves a grade based on the rubric (providing feedback). The teacher will then grade these according to the rubric. This lesson or series of activities would provide students with all the essentials of expository writing while hitting on a variety of learning styles and instructional techniques. Expository writing is an important skill for students to have and needs to be taught in a scaffolded approach. Romano, Tony and Anderson, Gary, Expository Composition: Discovering Your Voice, EMC Publishing, St. Paul, MN, 2008.

Intermediate Macroeconomics Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Intermediate Macroeconomics - Research Paper Example The decrease in the interest or cash rate will encourage the consumers and investors to spend more money. This, in turn, will increase the overall output and, as a result, will force the GDP growth rate to increase in the next two quarters. Hence, the decreasing inflation rate will contribute towards the real GDP growth for 2012 quarter IV and 2013 quarter I. This is also supported by the depreciating Australian currency. 2. Inflation Rate for 2012 Quarter IV and 2013 Quarter I: It is being forecasted that the inflation rate will be 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012 and 0.6875 percent in the first quarter of 2013 (derived from the Australian Government Budget 2012–13). The inflation rate is being forecasted to be down in the fourth quarter of 2012 because of the less capital investment in response to the weakening economic conditions all over the world (RBA statistics). However, this low inflation rate will push the RBA to decrease the cash rate and, thus, force the in vestors to invest in the market. This, in turn, will increase the money circulation and spending and, hence, will increase the demand which will force the inflation rate to increase in the first quarter of 2013. This is also supported by the decreasing interest rates (RBA statistics). ... This is because of the decreasing inflation rate in the previous quarter and underestimated market demand (RBA statistics). Hence, the decrease in the inflation rate and market demand will force the RBA to take necessary measures to increase the overall economic growth of the country. In order to increase the demand and improve the investment activities, the RBA will decrease the cash rate. The decreasing cash rate will discourage the investors and consumers from saving their money and will, hence, increase the consumer spending, investment and market demand, which, in turn, will result in increasing the overall economic growth in the country (Mankiw, 2009). The RBA will keep this decrease in the cash rate for a couple of months and will monitor the domestic and international market. The increasing market demand will eventually result in increasing the inflation rate and, hence, RBA will be forced to again increase the cash rate in the second quarter of 2013. 4. Average Exchange Rate between the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar to Prevail from November 1, 2012 to June 30, 2013: The average exchange rate between the Australian Dollar and the US Dollar, which is more likely to prevail from November 1, 2012 to June 30, 2013, is 0.98 US dollars per Australian dollar (Derived with the help of Australian Dollar Currency Exchange Forecast). This can be directly related with the decision of the RBA to decrease the cash rate and interest rates. One reason behind the lengthened high exchange rate or value of the Australian dollar has been the difference in the interest rates prevailing in Australia and United States. The decreasing interest rate will force the investors to look for some other places for investment and hence, there

What dominates the relationship between the Mideast and the Western Essay

What dominates the relationship between the Mideast and the Western powers - Essay Example the worlds that are endowed with a lot of natural resources wealth, especially the oil deposits, which then make it one of the strategic sources of petroleum globally. In this respect, the resource question dominates the relationship between the Mideast and the Western powers, since despite the fact that the two ends of the world have major differences regarding the political, social and economic orientations, the Western powers must keep cooperating with the Middle East as a major source of raw material for their economy (Bew, n.p.). Thus, despite the fact that there is a high degree of violation of the human rights and other democratic principles that are held in high esteem by the Western powers, they still find it necessary to keep a cordial relationship with the Middle East, for the sake of continued benefit from the oil resource. It is even difficult to imagine what would happen should the Middle East severe its relationship with the West, since there would be a dire shortage o f the oil resource to the West, which is a major driving force for the Western powers’ economies. Market is yet another major factor that dominates the relationship between the Mideast and the Western powers. The Middle East offers a huge market for the Western Powers products on top of producing essential raw materials for those economies, such that trade with the Middle East is a fundamental determinant of the Western Powers dominance in global economy (Hourani, 45). During the World War II, the USA stationed its troops in Iran so that the troops would protect the Iranian oil deposits from being exploited for the advantage of the USSR (Fawcett, 102). Since then, the interest in the Middle East oil resource has informed the relationship between the western powers and the Middle East. In this respect, the Western powers have formulated their foreign policies such that they still reflect a cordial relationship with the Middle East, even when the middle East countries are advancing

Rabbi Kushner Postulates Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Rabbi Kushner Postulates - Essay Example According to Kushner, it can essentially therefore be perceived to be rather impossible for one to be able to effectively answer this question as attempts to try and answer it generally result in the asking of more complex questions that cause people to start doubt in God or have wavering faith (WTVI 1985). Rabbi Kushner postulates that we are probably not asking the right question as we tend to mostly concentrate on asking the question of why. Why tends to more frequently dwell on the past as opposed to trying to establish a way forward. No matter how pious one might happen to be, it is not possible to change the past and we should instead concentrate on the future. In line with this, Rabbi Kushner theorizes that the answer to a question does not necessarily have to be a response, but it can instead be in the form of an explanation. Perhaps, the answer to the question on why bad things sometimes tend to happen to good people is that there is no solution to this answer as we live in an imperfect world. Question 2: There are three key terms that Rabbi Kushner postulates as being of critical importance if one is to be able to adequately discuss the problems relating to the everyday reality of human suffering and grief and the God of the Jewish revelation. The first term is that there is a common assumption that God happens to be all powerful and absolutely nothing can ever be impossible for him to do. We think of God as being in charge of every single aspect of creation and controls everything that happens to us. The second term that Rabbi Kushner puts forth is that God’s nature is exceedingly just, kind and fair and He always gives us more than we happen to actually deserve while forever giving us the benefit of doubt by providing us with a second chance. The third term is seen to be personated by the assumption that Job was a good man since he was seen to be initially respected, healthy and extremely wealthy (Job, 614-644; WTVI 1985). It is evidently not possible for all of these three to be mutually compatible in the event that one attempts to use them in attempting to explain an encounter with a grave misfortune. This is because of the human tendency to try and shift the blame to a given individual thus disputing the third term that the individual is a good person. The other two terms can be viewed as being of a sacrilegious nature as trying to dispute them goes against all the tenets governing religion as we currently know it. Question 3: Rabbi Kushner has a unique perspective in his understanding of miracles in that he does not believe in the big miracles such as miraculously dividing the entire red sea into two or even stopping the sun at high noon. Rather, he thinks of these as being special effects. Instead, although he does believe in miracles, he chooses to believe in the small miracles such as weak people all of a sudden gaining strong characters that help them deal with situations that they would not have been able to ef fectively cope with before the change, when timid people change and portray extremely brave personalities and when the selfish change their nature and become generous. Rabbi Kushner points out that to effect such changes in people, it is imperative for one to be God as these cannot simply be achieved by camera effects as commonly happens in movies. God is the only person that can bring about exceptional qualities in individuals, qualities that these individuals did not previously happen to possess (WTVI 1985). Rabbi Kushner has

Analysis of UK Basic Chemicals Company

Analysis of UK Basic Chemicals Company BASIC CHEMICALS IN UK ANALYSIS HEADLINES The market size of basic chemicals in UK has declined to GBP12,422 million recording a decline of 2.6% in 2013 due to lower sales to manufacturers of plastic and synthetic rubber in primary form Reach regulation tightened in 2013 limiting competition of non-EU companies in UK Profit margin declines to a record low of 3% preventing production expansion in UK Shale gas remains an ace for basic chemicals producers in UK UK basic chemicals industry is matured. It is expected to grow at CAGR of 0.7% during 2013-2019 MARKET TRENDS The market size of basic chemicals in UK has declined to GBP12,422 million recording a decline of 2.6% in 2013. Contraction of the industry was driven by falling revenues from plastics in primary forms, household cleaning and personal care, photochemicals and explosive, as well as pharmaceuticals segments. Purchases of basic chemicals by plastic in primary forms and synthetic rubber industry declined by 23% to GBP1,360 million. The plastics industry in UK was having trouble competing with producers abroad as oversupply in the world settled-in. UK producers do not have access to cheap raw materials. Consequently, production of plastics and rubber in primary form declined by 23% in UK during 2013 negatively reflecting on revenues of basic chemical industry. Household cleaning and personal care producers reduced their purchases of basic chemicals by 15% in UK during 2013 as turnover of household cleaning and personal care products at constant prices declined by 5.1%. Declining prices of specialty chemicals caused by increasing competition from China was the main reason of lower sales. Competition from abroad is limited by high infrastructure barriers for certain products. Currently ethylene production is concentrated in Grangemouth, Mossmorran and Wilton, UK and there is a network of 8 pipelines connecting major producers and consumers in UK. It is also proposed to connect ethylene network with Rotterdam. Potentially increasing imports if competition kicks-in. As of June, 2013 the regulation of chemicals in EU territory became stricter based on REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemical substances) regulation. The requirement to register chemicals manufactured or intended to import into EU in quantities greater than 100 tons per year forces companies to register within ECA (European Chemicals Agency). Registration within ECA results in higher costs as extensive research to confirm their safety is needed. Imports were pushed out as local producers were able to win-back their market share. Though market of basic chemicals in UK contracted by just 2.6% during 2013 but imports of basic chemicals declined by 25%. Imports made 63% of the basic chemicals market in 2013 in comparison to 81% in 2012. Local producers were pushing out imports of hydrocarbons, oxygen-function compounds and other organic chemicals as their import declined by 31%. PRODUCTION TRENDS Despite declining markets, production of basic chemicals was booming recording an 11% growth in 2013. The growth was driven by hydrocarbons, oxygen-function compounds and other organic chemicals expansion as the segment was winning back market share from imports. As competition in hydrocarbons, oxygen-function compounds and other organic chemicals got tense world-wide, domestic producers chose to compete in local market cutting down segment exports by 20% and total basic chemicals export by 17%. Cost pressure to the basic chemicals industry declined. Total costs related to basic chemicals increased by 12% in UK during. However, cost per unit of produce declined by 5% as turnover at constant prices increased by 17%. As production of hydrocarbons soared, costs related to refined petroleum products by 17% in 2013. The rise in costs in relation to growth in production at constant prices is related to increased share of basic chemicals manufactured from oil products as PPI of refined petroleum products decreased by 5%. Purchases of gas has increased by 21% due to 9.4% rise in prices for industrial uses. Increase in production of hydrocarbons drove the purchases of gas upwards as well. The gas supply is well diversified with most of the gas coming from domestic supplies and Norway. Electricity costs increased by 20% in production of basic chemicals in UK during 2013. Mostly it was related to increased production in quantity though, electricity price rose by 2.6% for industrial users in UK during 2013. UK’s electricity generating capacities are outdated and plants one by one are turned off. Investments are increasing consequently raising electricity wholesale price. Despite an 11% growth in production, profits declined by 21% to GBP284 million in 2013. Profit margin has declined to a record low of 3% as producers were not able to cut costs at same amount as producer prices decreased by 5.7% in 2013. Low profitability repelled new companies and prevents the industry from expansion in the next couple years. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE Economies of scale is a major drive force in the industry. Though 27 companies with over 250 employees make less than 2% of companies in the industry, they generated 90% of turnover in 2013 as costs. Largest companies in the industry were Ineos Group Ltd, BP Aromatics Ltd, BASF Plc, Air Products Group Ltd and Croda International Plc. Ineos Group Ltd, a UK-based subsidiary of Ineos AG, manufactures petrochemicals, specialty chemicals and oil products as polymers, chlorvinyls, ethanol, esters, ammonia and nitric acids, plastics, melamines, pnenols, oligomers, olefines, oxides and styrenics. The company sold its INEOS ChlorVinyls divission of chlorine business to 2M Group Ltd that operated in UK in August, 2013. Ineos Group also acquired a powerplant from Fortum in Grangemouth, UK in October, 2014 for GBP54 million. BP Aromatics Ltd is a UK-based subsidiary of BP Plc engaged in manufacture of purified terephthalic acid, acetic acid and olefins and derivatives that are derived from crude oil or natural gas. The company opened a brand-new bioethanol plant in Hull, UK in July, 2013 that cost GBP350 million. BASF Plc is a UK-based subsidiary of BASF SE. The company operates under 6 business segments: chemicals, plastics, performance products, functional solutions, agricultural as well as oil and gas. The chemicals segment is further divided into inorganics, petrochemicals and intermediates divisions. in January, 2013 the company completed acquisition of Pronova BioPharma. In 2014, the company sold its styrolution divission to Ineos as well as began building ammonia plant in Texas, US together with Yara. Air Products Group Ltd is a multinational subsidiary of Air Products Chemicals Inc, which divides its busines into 4 divisions: gases, chemicals, equipment and services solutions. Air Products Group Ltd and Oman Oil Co have signed a joint venture that will provide full range of industrial gases in Oman in December, 2013. Croda International Plc is a multinational company engaged in manufacture of natural based speciality chemicals: consumer care which consists of global businesses in personal care, health care and crop care as well as Industrial Specialities which comprises home care, base oleochemicals, additives for polymers, polymers and coatings, lubricants and lubricant additives, and processed vegetable oils. The company has manufacturing facilities throughout the UK and mainland Europe, North and South America, India, Singapore, South Korea, Indonesia and Japan. Croda has invested GBP12 million in April, 2013 in new manufacturing facility in East Yorkshire, UK for processing specialty acrylic-based polymers. The company acquired Sipo to boost its presence in emerging markets in September, 2013. PROSPECTS UK basic chemicals industry is matured. It is expected to grow at CAGR of 0.7% during 2013-2019. The growth will be strongest in bases, gases and other inorganics of 2.5% CAGR during same period. The growth will be hold back by increasing overproduction in world market. Prices of most basic chemicals will continue to be on decline in 2014. It is expected that the price of inorganic and organic chemicals will continue to decline in UK by up to 10% due to sluggish demand in EU and increasing oversupply globally in 2014. Meanwhile, organic chemicals prices should decline by up to 4% in France in 2014 as production continues to increase in N. America with further rapid decline in 2015 as oil and gas prices collapse. Shale gas revolution in US is causing a major headache for UK basic chemicals producers as UK manufacturers have to pay up to 3 times more for gas than US producers. Consequently, producers in N. America are increasing production capacity and might further pressure prices of hydrocarbon-based chemicals down. UK shale gas reserves are estimated between 2.8 and 39.9 trillion cubic metres. Though it remains unclear how much of it is technical extractable. Exploration of shale gas and its extraction is a slow-going process in UK but if successful it could give a boost to basic chemicals market Electricity price most likely will continue to rise as demand of investment increases. Currently, the generation capacities and grid is outdated and a third of power plants are projected to be shut down by 2015. Consequently, investments and price of wholesale electricity should increase deteriorating UK industry’s competitiveness. Recent events in Ukraine and Russia pose little threat to supply of gases in UK as 73% of it is supplied by domestic production and Norway. Qatar supplies another 12% and only 15% of gas that is supplied by Belgium and Netherlands might be redirected from Russia. Though price issue remains if supply struggles in continental Europe, prices of gas might increase. However, supply issues in continental Europe could boost basic chemicals export from UK as producers in other countries might have to cut production. Tightening REACH regulation creates barriers of imports of mostly specialty chemicals as extensive and costly research is required before chemicals are approved by ECA for trade and use in EU. As EU companies tend to have higher market share they gain competitive advantage in distributing their overhead costs in comparison to non-EU producers.

World History: How Can a Discipline Remain Relevant? Essay -- World Hi

â€Å"Historians are a contentious lot. While their arguments are usually conducted in polite language, the disputations are conducted on a number of fronts at once, and the frame of mind of the disputants ranges from a sporting pleasure with making point after point to a savage determination to win the day.† Although a sense of negativity creeps into this notion of Manning’s, a strengthening of world history can also emerge from this back and forth debate. World history will take shape as scholars push each other to clarify and defend ideas, while remaining skeptical and critical readers. This debate is key to avoiding either a stagnation of ideas or a dilution of possible new insights. As Manning asserts, â€Å"The exciting debates and the real advances in knowledge come when multiple scholars are working on related topics, testing their assumptions, data, and interpretations against each other’s.† As world history moves forward, as a disc ipline, historians would do well to keep this in mind. In addition to internal debate, a need to defend world history as a discipline is still necessary. A significant amount of work was done on defining and defending world history in the early to mid 1990’s. Any cursory look at the Journal of World History during this time period highlights this fact. In addition if you look to the May 1995 issue of History and Theory you see a thematic take on world history. As a result of this scholarship the discipline of world history gained momentum in academia, especially at the teaching level. Despite this trend, world history still finds itself defending its ideas. World history has yet to gain support from the elite universities and those that wish to pursue a PhD in world history have limi... ...r than a series of airtight specialist monographs.† Only by engaging in the debate within and from outside of world history will the discipline continue to be relevant on both an academic and popular stage. Works Cited Duchesne, Ricardo. â€Å"Asia First?.† The Journal of the Historical Society 6, no. 1 (March 2006): 69-91. Frank, Andre Gunder. ReOrient: Global Economy in the Asian Age. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1998. Hobson, John. â€Å"Explaining the Rise of the West: A Reply to Ricardo Duchesne.† The Journal of the Historical Society 6, no. 4 (December 2006): 579-599. Landes, David. The Wealth and Poverty of Nations: Why Some Are So Rich and Some So Poor. New York: WW Norton and Company, 1999. Manning, Patrick. Navigating World History: Historian Create a Global Past New York: Palgrave/MacMillan, 2003. World History: How Can a Discipline Remain Relevant? Essay -- World Hi â€Å"Historians are a contentious lot. While their arguments are usually conducted in polite language, the disputations are conducted on a number of fronts at once, and the frame of mind of the disputants ranges from a sporting pleasure with making point after point to a savage determination to win the day.† Although a sense of negativity creeps into this notion of Manning’s, a strengthening of world history can also emerge from this back and forth debate. World history will take shape as scholars push each other to clarify and defend ideas, while remaining skeptical and critical readers. This debate is key to avoiding either a stagnation of ideas or a dilution of possible new insights. As Manning asserts, â€Å"The exciting debates and the real advances in knowledge come when multiple scholars are working on related topics, testing their assumptions, data, and interpretations against each other’s.† As world history moves forward, as a disc ipline, historians would do well to keep this in mind. In addition to internal debate, a need to defend world history as a discipline is still necessary. A significant amount of work was done on defining and defending world history in the early to mid 1990’s. Any cursory look at the Journal of World History during this time period highlights this fact. In addition if you look to the May 1995 issue of History and Theory you see a thematic take on world history. As a result of this scholarship the discipline of world history gained momentum in academia, especially at the teaching level. Despite this trend, world history still finds itself defending its ideas. World history has yet to gain support from the elite universities and those that wish to pursue a PhD in world history have limi... ...r than a series of airtight specialist monographs.† Only by engaging in the debate within and from outside of world history will the discipline continue to be relevant on both an academic and popular stage. Works Cited Duchesne, Ricardo. â€Å"Asia First?.† The Journal of the Historical Society 6, no. 1 (March 2006): 69-91. Frank, Andre Gunder. ReOrient: Global Economy in the Asian Age. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1998. Hobson, John. â€Å"Explaining the Rise of the West: A Reply to Ricardo Duchesne.† The Journal of the Historical Society 6, no. 4 (December 2006): 579-599. Landes, David. The Wealth and Poverty of Nations: Why Some Are So Rich and Some So Poor. New York: WW Norton and Company, 1999. Manning, Patrick. Navigating World History: Historian Create a Global Past New York: Palgrave/MacMillan, 2003.